The ever-growing list of government pro-natalist initiatives at local and national levels has so far failed to slow China’s demographic changes. For many men and women, marriage and child bearing remain too costly, despite new financial incentives. As a result, reported Luna Sun at the South China Morning Post, marriage registrations dropped eight percent this year:

As marriage registrations in China continued to decline in the first quarter of the year, local governments have dangled cash rewards as high as 40,000 yuan (US$5,487) in front of young couples in a bid to rekindle the will to wed and stave off the worst of a demographic crisis.

In the first three months of 2025, 1.81 million couples registered for marriage, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said last week. This represents a decrease of 159,000 couples compared to the same period last year for an 8 per cent drop, with a simultaneous 10 per cent increase in the number of divorce registrations.

[...] Last year, China recorded the lowest number of new marriages since 1980; only 6.10 million couples in China tied the knot in 2024, down 20.5 per cent from 2023, according to the ministry. [Source]

Earlier this month, the government announced a revision to the marriage registration ordinance, the first since its enactment in 2003, that will reduce paperwork and give couples more flexibility to choose where to register their marriage, including in locations beyond their places of permanent residence. Last week, The Economist described how Hohhot and other cities have offered child-care subsidies as part of their pro-natalist push, but that these have been received without much enthusiasm:

In Hohhot, however, the uptake so far appears weak. On March 13th, with fanfare in national media, the city announced one of the biggest cash-for-kids schemes in the country. Mothers will now be paid 10,000 yuan for a first child, 50,000 yuan over five years for a second and 100,000 yuan over ten years for a third. That third-child reward is double the city’s average annual salary. But Hohhot is not offering much beyond the cash payments, and at one local office that processes subsidy registrations an employee said that they have received only seven or eight inquiries in the month since the policy announcement.

Ms Liu at the baby store, who is 35 and has one child, said she would like to have a second if she had more money, but the new incentives do not offset the lack of child-care support and the high costs of raising children in a competitive environment. “The policy might change the minds of people on the fence about having kids, but people like me won’t consider it,” she says.

For Ms Wu, a 29-year-old civil servant about to give birth to her first child, the 10,000 yuan “adds flowers to the brocade” and could help with her mortgage or car loan, but “50,000 yuan is not going to cover the costs of a second child”. It costs high-income families 1.3m yuan to raise a child to adulthood, estimates YuWa Population Research Institute, a think-tank in Beijing. The figure is more like 130,000 yuan for low-income families. Wang Feng of the University of California, Irvine, thinks Hohhot’s policy will not “make a dent” in the city’s population decline. “Babies cannot be bought,” he says. “The cost is lifelong and it’s not just monetary.” [Source]

Many Chinese women have balked at government plans to raise the birth rate. Even Xinhua shared a comment last week by one Weibo user who wrote, “If I were married, there’s no way I’d enjoy the kind of freedom I have now,” and another who wrote, “If I can’t find the right person, I’d rather stay single than settle.” One major impediment is that the government has also made it harder for couples to divorce. This was one of the main points made by behavioral economist Jia Yongmin, who recently published an opinion piece in Fengsheng OPINION discussing why China’s recent pro-matrimony policies are failing to persuade young people to get married:

In fact, increasing impediments to divorce have had a dissuasive effect on marriage. "Marriage is like a fortress besieged: those who are outside want to get in, and those who are inside want to get out." The preceding quote comes from Qian Zhongshu’s [1947] masterpiece "Fortress Besieged." Although they are the words of a novelist, the theory behind them has been borne out by economic research.

A paper published by Hauert et al. in the journal Science proved that the freedom of participants to choose to withdraw is a necessary condition for the emergence and maintenance of cooperation. Marriage is undoubtedly a cooperative undertaking. Without the freedom to exit that "fortress besieged", there will surely be less incentive to enter it in the first place. [Chinese]

Highlighting another pro-natalist effort gone awry, women have reported receiving unsolicited WeChat messages from their local “family doctor,” apparently tasked with contacting women aged 14-49 in their district and asking them, “Has your period been normal recently? On what date did you last get your period? Please respond via text. Thank you!” According to screenshots of these messages on Chinese social media shared by Teacher Li, some netizens interpreted this as a call to have children. The incident is similar to reports from last fall that netizens had received calls from local government authorities asking, “Are you pregnant? Do you plan to be? Do you have a boyfriend?”

More promising approaches might be found elsewhere. Elsie Chen at the AP reported on Tuesday about how young Chinese singles are looking for love in video chats:

Frustrated with traditional dating and using the apps, Chen jumped on a new trend among young, single people in China. Those looking for love go into video chatrooms hosted by what’s called a “cyber matchmaker,” all while thousands of viewers watch and comment in real time.

The number of single people in China over 15 reached a record-high of 240 million in 2023, according to government data. Facing a plummeting birth rate and an aging population, the government encouraged single people to marry and have multiple children. Last year, the State Council, China’s cabinet, mandated that local governments build various platforms for youth to have more opportunities to date.

[...] For those who want to get married though, the livestreamed videos are an appealing alternative to traditional matchmaking methods, like marriage markets — where families exchange resumes and arrange dates for their unmarried children.

They’re also another option for those tired of dating apps. [Source]